Bayesian Modelling of Prehistoric Corbelled Domes

The field of archaeology provides a rich source of complex, non-standard problems ideally suited to Bayesian inference. In this paper, we discuss the application of Bayesian methodology to prehistoric corbelled tomb data collected from a variety of sites around Europe. We show how the corresponding analyses may be carried out with the aid of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques and, by calculating posterior model probabilities, we show how to distinguish between competing models. In particular, we discuss how earlier analyses of tomb data by Cavanagh and Laxton (1981, 1982, 1985) and by Buck et al (1993), where structural changes are anticipated in the shape of the tomb at different depths, can be extended and improved by considering a wider range of models. We also discuss the extent to which these analyses may be useful in addressing questions concerning the origin of tomb-building technologies, particularly in distinguishing between corbelled domes built by different civilisations, as well as the processes involved in their construction.